Mortgage payments keep easing into a huge week for policy. The Federal Reserve convenes September 16–17, 2025, with markets broadly expecting a rate cut—a backdrop that’s pulling more shoppers back to open houses across the Valley. Federal Reserve+1

What just happened (and what’s next)

• Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the 30-year fixed at 6.35% (as of Sept 11), the largest weekly drop in a year. Daily indexes show ~6.25% this morning. That trims typical payments and is nudging demand higher. Freddie Mac+2Freddie Mac+2

• Inflation check: CPI (Aug) came in +2.9% YoY, core +3.1% YoY; PPI (Aug) fell 0.1% MoM and is +2.6% YoY—a friendlier combo for bonds and mortgage pricing. Bureau of Labor Statistics+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2

• Buyer activity: MBA reports applications +9.2% WoW (week ending Sept 5) as rates dipped; Redfin says cheaper payments are bringing a “trickle, not a surge”—buyers are re-engaging, but it’s not 2021. MBA+1

• The Fed (this week): The FOMC meets Sept 16–17; futures imply a high-90% chance of a 25 bps cut. Watch the decision + press conference and the new dot plot on Wednesday. Federal Reserve+2CME Group+2

What this means for local buyers

• Get fully underwritten (not just pre-qualified) to win if traffic pops after the Fed.

• Ask about lock + float-down so you’re protected if pricing blips, but can capture a post-decision dip.

• Tour early. With applications jumping and rates easing, being first through the door still matters. (National read: demand uptick = measured, not manic.) MBA+1

What this means for local sellers

• List into momentum. Lower payments widen buyer pools; clean, de-cluttered, staged homes with sharp pricing move first.

• Price precisely. Activity is improving, not exploding—tight comps still rule.

• Timing edge. Going live before/around the Fed decision can catch the initial wave of re-engaged buyers. (Rates are moving now, not just “after.”) Freddie Mac

Local lens: Winchester • Temecula • Murrieta • Menifee

Open-house chatter and on-the-ground tours have perked up as payments eased. Nationally, Redfin still calls it a “trickle, not a surge”—which means serious buyers and well-prepared sellers can still execute without chaos. Redfin

Bottom line: If you’re buying, be fully underwritten and tour-ready now. If you’re selling, finish prep and list into this week’s momentum.

Rate Watch — Updated Sept 15, 2025

• 30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac, weekly): 6.35% (week ending Sept 11) • 15-yr: 5.50%. Biggest weekly drop in a year. Freddie Mac+1

• 30-yr fixed (daily, MND): ~6.25% today (intraday index). Mortgage News Daily

• Applications: MBA +9.2% WoW (wk ending Sept 5), highest in years. MBA

• Context: Policy cuts don’t pass 1:1 to mortgage rates, but cooler inflation + easier Fed stance can pull yields—and pricing—lower. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1

What to Watch This Week (Sept 15–19) — Times PT (ET)

• Tue, Sept 16 — Retail Sales (Aug), 5:30a (8:30a). First look at consumer strength heading into fall. Census.gov

• Tue, Sept 16 — NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment (Sep), 7:00a (10:00a). Builder confidence + traffic. National Association of Home Builders

• Tue–Wed, Sept 16–17 — FOMC meeting; statement Wed ~11:00a (2:00p) + press conference to follow; new SEP/dot plot. Federal Reserve

• Wed, Sept 17 — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Aug), 5:30a (8:30a). Supply pulse. Census.gov

• Thu, Sept 18 — Initial Jobless Claims, 5:30a (8:30a). Labor cooling supports cut odds. UI Benefit Payments

• Thu, Sept 18 — Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly). Fresh mortgage-rate print. Freddie Mac

Ready to move first?
I’m touring daily across Winchester • Temecula • Murrieta • Menifee.
Buyers: DM “READY” for my lender list, same-day TBD underwriting, and private coming-soons.
Sellers: Ask for my 7-point prep checklist + pricing strategy session.

Lamonica Harrison, REALTOR® | DRE #02283338 | Century 21 Affiliated
MDCS Realty — Turning dreams into reality. One key at a time.

Sources

Federal Reserve FOMC calendar & weekly schedule; Freddie Mac PMMS; Mortgage News Daily daily index; MBA Weekly Applications; BLS CPI & PPI; Redfin Weekly Market Update. Redfin+8Federal Reserve+8Federal Reserve+8