MDCS Realty Monday Market Brief

The Job Market Cooled.
Mortgage Rates Did Not—Yet.

What Inland Empire buyers and sellers should watch next

Week of August 10, 2026

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher even as July payrolls declined. The mixed signals remind us that mortgage rates respond to inflation, employment, Federal Reserve expectations, Treasury yields, and investor activity—not one report by itself.

Last week delivered a meaningful change in the economic conversation: July payroll employment declined, and previously reported job gains were revised lower. That may eventually create some relief for borrowing costs—but buyers should not expect an immediate or guaranteed drop in mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates actually edged higher during the week. Unemployment claims remained relatively low, job openings were steady, and residential construction spending continued to soften. Here in the Inland Empire, the latest complete housing report shows active sales, moderate pricing, and a market where preparation matters more than broad headlines.

Mortgage rates increased to 6.69%

The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased from 6.66% to 6.69% as of August 6. One year ago, the average was 6.63%. The average 15-year fixed rate moved down slightly, from 6.04% to 6.01%.
Freddie Mac

This is a clear example of why one economic report does not control mortgage rates. Even with weaker employment data, financial markets are still weighing inflation, energy prices, Treasury yields, economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and investor demand for mortgage-backed securities.

Freddie Mac’s number is also a national average—not a personal loan quote. A buyer’s actual rate can vary based on credit, down payment, loan program, property type, lender pricing, points, and the day the rate is locked.

The practical response is to compare complete loan scenarios. A lower advertised rate is not automatically the best option if it requires substantial upfront fees. Assistance programs, seller credits, lender credits, and temporary or permanent rate buydowns should be evaluated based on both immediate cost and long-term value.

July payrolls declined as earlier job gains were revised lower

U.S. nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Employment gains for May and June were revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs.
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average hourly earnings increased 3.2% over the past year. June job openings were relatively steady at 7.4 million, with hiring at 5.3 million. Initial unemployment claims reached 199,000 for the week ending August 1—still low by historical standards.

Put together, these reports suggest the labor market is cooling without yet showing widespread layoffs. That distinction matters. A measured slowdown could give inflation additional room to improve. A sharp employment decline, however, would raise broader concerns about household confidence and housing demand.

Residential construction remained under pressure

Total U.S. construction spending declined 0.1% in June and was 3.2% below its year-earlier level. Private residential construction declined 0.3% during the month and 4.7% annually. Spending on new single-family construction fell 0.6% monthly and 3.3% annually.
U.S. Census Bureau

One month does not establish a long-term construction trend, and these estimates are subject to revision. Still, continued softness can limit future housing supply.

Buyers comparing new construction with resale homes should consider the complete cost—not only the builder’s advertised rate or closing-cost incentive. That comparison should include the permanent loan terms, property taxes, Mello-Roos, HOA dues, insurance, lot premiums, upgrades, warranties, and expected maintenance.

The Inland Empire remains active, but buyers are value-conscious

No new California monthly sales report was released last week, so June remains the latest complete local snapshot. The Inland Empire median single-family home price was $601,000, down 2.3% from May and 0.7% from June 2025. Sales increased 12.4% monthly and 8.3% annually.

Riverside County’s median price was $635,000—unchanged from one year earlier—while sales increased 7.1% annually. Homes spent a median of 35 days on the market, compared with 41 days one year earlier.
California Association of REALTORS®

This does not describe a distressed market. It describes a market where buyers are active but payment-sensitive. Correctly priced, well-prepared homes can still attract interest. Listings that overlook condition, competition, insurance costs, taxes, or financing realities may require additional time or adjustment.

Inflation and Federal Reserve policy remain part of the rate discussion

The Federal Reserve did not meet last week. Its current federal funds target range remains 3.50% to 3.75%. The Fed has said inflation remains elevated compared with its 2% goal, which helps explain why policymakers have not rushed to lower rates.

The latest Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation of 3.5% in June, while core inflation was 2.6%. Real consumer spending increased 0.4% in June, showing that households continued spending even as employment conditions cooled.

These indicators are not all pointing in the same direction. That is why the next inflation and consumer-spending reports could produce additional mortgage-rate movement.

Three points for buyers

1. Ask for multiple loan scenarios showing the interest rate, fees, credits, cash required, and monthly payment.
2. Use local market conditions when negotiating. National headlines do not determine whether a specific home is priced correctly.
3. Include taxes, insurance, HOA dues, Mello-Roos, maintenance, moving costs, and emergency reserves in your affordability calculation.

Three points for sellers

1. Sales activity is present, but buyers are carefully comparing condition, monthly payment, and overall value.
2. Price according to current competition—not only past sales from a different interest-rate environment.
3. A targeted credit or rate buydown may solve a buyer’s affordability concern more effectively than an automatic price reduction.

Education is the foundation. Preparation is key.

This market update is provided for educational purposes. Mortgage rates, assistance-program availability, property values, insurance costs, and lending terms vary. Buyers and sellers should obtain advice based on their individual financial and real estate circumstances.